Mesothelioma : Estimation of the future burden of mesothelioma deaths - http://www.hse.gov.uk

Estimation of the future burden of mesothelioma deaths The latest projections of future mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain show that the expected number of deaths amongst males is predicted to increase to a peak of 2038 (90% prediction interval: 1929 to 2156) in the year 2016 (90% prediction interval: 2015 to 2016).
These projections are based on a modified version of the statistical model published in 2005. This model provides a reasonable basis for making relatively short-term projections of mesothelioma mortality in Britain, including the extent and timing of the peak number of deaths.
However, longer-term predictions comprise two additional sources of uncertainty which are not captured within the prediction intervals for the annual number of deaths. Firstly, the long term projections are particularly dependent on assumptions about the population exposure beyond 1980 for which there is no strong empirical basis. The second source of uncertainty relates to the specific mathematical form of the model we have used. Whilst it provides a good fit to observations of mortality to date, these are still dominated by the effects of heavy past occupational exposures and it is not clear whether the model will be valid for different patterns of exposure in more recent times.
Further work is currently underway to produce projections for females. Alternative methodological approaches will also be considered for both males and females and this should help to better characterise the uncertainty in the longer range projections beyond the peak year.

Further details about the most recent projections are available in the research report.^[1]

Source : http://www.hse.gov.uk permits to republish here.
Contains public sector information published by the Health and Safety Executive and licensed under the Open Government Licence v1.0’.

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